FEATURES OF FORMING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR WINTER WHEAT IN THE SOUTH OF UKRAINE
Abstract
The article examines the importance of considering several factors affecting the soil water regime in the context of developing models for forecasting productive soil moisture reserves. It was established that the main factors, such as the type of soil, its density, and mechanical composition, remain constant in different soil and climatic regions of Ukraine. The second group of factors, such as air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, are subject to changes throughout the growing season and even over short periods. Therefore, the dynamics of soil moisture as a function of the main variables, such as average air temperature and precipitation, was considered using calculations. Initial moisture reserves are used in the calculations for more accurate forecasting of moisture reserves at the end of a specified period. Hydrothermal conditions considered as predictors in the regression equation are also used. The reliability of the conducted research is confirmed by the analysis of independent input and output information from the Kherson weather station in the period from 2018 to 2021 regarding the actual reserves of productive moisture in the soil at a depth of 0 - 20,0 - 50 and 0 - 100 cm.
The average error between actual and calculated data did not exceed +13,5%. It confirms the reliability and precision of the conducted research making it the basis for further analyses and conclusions. The conclusions noted the need for accurately determining soil moisture to effectively manage agrometeorological conditions and optimize crop yield. The authors believe that the research work presented in this article can significantly contribute to developing modern approaches to water availability in agriculture and agrometeorology. That will contribute to the gradual and improved development of soil moisture forecasting methodology, which is key to ensuring sustainable and productive development in agriculture.
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