Climate change and economic efficiency of agricultural production in the Steppe zone
Relevance of research. Due to ongoing climate change, almost the entire territory of the Steppe of Ukraine by annual humidity factor belongs to the dry and very dry zones, the relative area of which has increased by 13.2% of the total area of the country compared to the 1960-1990s. At the same time, for today in Ukraine only about 500 thousand hectares are actually irrigated, that is 19% of the potential area.
Purpose of research. To determine the patterns and trends of climate change in the western part of the dry Steppe of Ukraine and analyze the economic indicators of production activity in the region as to the variable weather conditions.
Research methodology. Climate change was estimated on the basis of Climate Water Balance (CWB) and Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC) values. The analysis of the economic efficiency of agricultural production was carried out by analyzing the statistical data for Odessa region and for the chosen agricultural enterprise.
Research results and conclusions. The use of significant heat supply in the dry Steppe zone is limited by insufficient water supply conditions. In the years of 1991-2016 the average annual rainfall was 480 mm and since the early 2000s there has been a slight increase in that. However, even having 500-550 mm of average annual rainfall that has been observed over the past five years, it is not enough for providing high-yield agricultural production. High thermal regime couses high evaporation that in turn, leads to water supply deficit, which at the end of the growing season amounts to 336-436 mm. According to the HTC index in the region 80% of cases show severe and moderately arid vegetation conditions. At the same time, irrigation area in the region has decreased to a minimum, which has led to the domination of winter cereals and sunflower in the cropping system. Under variable weather conditions, winter wheat yields ranged from 19.4 to 38.5 c/ ha (31.4 c/ha on average) and sunflower - from 12.2 to 21.4 c/ha (17.4 c/ha on average), winter rape - from 13.1 to 20.9 c/ha (18.2 c/ha). It was proved a close direct relationship between the sale price of products of all studied crops and their cost price, as well as the inverse relationship of these indicators with the crop yield. The profitability of winter wheat from 2011 till 2016 ranged from 17 to 153 USD/ha with an average value of 86 USD/ha, winter rape - from 39 to 273 USD/ha with an average value of 166 USD ha and sunflower - from 116 to 315 USD/ha with an average value of 192 USD/ha. Corn and soybeans have proven to be unprofitable in some years, which obviously explains rather small areas under these crops in the region.
Above mentioned demonstrates the high economic instability of agricultural production in changing weather conditions, which is accompanied by significant risks for producers, especially when attracting credits. This situation, in turn, leads to a limited use of intensification means, in particular mineral fertilizers, which promotes agrochemical soil degradation. Under unstable water supply, the magnitude of net profit variation per hectare of arable land in Odessa region is 33-188 USD/ha (111 USD/ha on average). It is possible to increase these indicators by increasing the share of winter rape in the cropping system. With the optimization of the water and air soil regimes as well as crop rotation factor, the profitability of agricultural production in the region can be increased up to 580-600 USD/ha. Similar results were obtained after analyzing the statistical data from the southern regions within the dry steppe zone.
2. Karmanov, Y. Y., Bulhakov, D. S., Fryev, T. A., Rozov, H. H., & Shuvalov, S. A. (1980). Ahroproyzvodstvennaia hruppyrovka pochv (obshchye polozhenyia y pryntsypy sostavlenyia) [Agricultural production grouping of soils (general provisions and principles of compilation)]. Moskva: MSKh SSSR / Pochvennyi in-t im. V. V. Dokuchaeva. [in Russian].
3. Volkovyntser, V. Y. (1979). Stepnye kryoarydnye pochvy [Steppe cryoarid soils]. M.: Novosybyrsk. Extended abstract of Doctor's thesis. [in Russian].
4. Herasymov, Y. P. (1933). O pochvenno-klymatycheskykh fatsyiakh ravnyn SSSR y prylehaiushchykh stran [On the soil and climatic facies of the plans of the USSR and adjacent countries]. (Vol. VIII, V. 5). Tr. Pochv. in-ta AN SSSR. [in USSR].
5. Romashchenko, M.I. (2015). Raionuvannia terytorii Ukrainy za rivnem zabezpechenosti hidrotermichnymy resursamy v umovakh hlobalnykh klimatychnykh zmin. Zbirka naukovykh prats, prysviachena Mizhnarodnomu roku gruntiv ta Mizhnarodnomu dniu gruntu, yakyi vidznachaiut shchorichno 5 hrudnia «Grunty ta melioratsiia: mynule i maibutnie». [Zoning of the territory of Ukraine according to the level of provisions with hydrothermal resources in the conditions of global climate change]. Kyiv, 11-16. [in Ukrainian].
6. Saidak, R.V., & Soroka, Yu.V. (2014). Ahrometeorolohichnyi potentsial stepovoi zony Ukrainy [Agrometeorological potential of the steppe zone of Ukraine]. Ahroekol. zhurn.,3, 23 – 27. [in Ukrainian].
7. Meliorovani ahroekosystemy [Reclaimed agroecosystems]. (2017). Nizhyn: Vydavets PP Lysenko M.M. [in Ukrainian].
8. Nalychye y raspredelenye zemelnoho fonda v Ukraynskoi SSR [The presence and distribution of land in the Ukrainian SSR]. (1987). Kyiv: HOSAHROPROM USSR. Upravlenye zemlepolzovanyia y zemleustroistva. [in USSR].
9. Derzhavnyi zemelnii kadastr Ukrainy [State Land Cadastre of Ukraine]. (1994). Kyiv: Derzhavnyi komitet Ukrainy po zemelnykh resursakh. [in Ukrainian].
10. Bilanchyn, Ya.M. (2003). Suchasnyi stan zroshennia v Odeshchyni ta tendentsii gruntoutvorennia na masyvakh zroshennia [The current state of irrigation in the Odessa region and trends in soil formation on irrigation]. Visnyk Odeskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. V. 8, 20. [in Ukrainian].
11. Monitorynh: Baza danykh 2016-2017 [Monitoring: Database 2016-2017]. Retrieved from http://www.kse.org.ua/uk/research-policy/land/governance-monitoring/database-2016-2017/
12. Intehrovane upravlinnia vodnymy i zemelnymy resursamy na meliorovanykh terytoriiakh: monohrafiia [Integrated management of water and land resources in reclaimed territories]. (2016). Kyiv: Ahrarn. nauka. [in Ukrainian].
13. Kontseptsiia vidnovlennia ta rozvytku zroshennia u pivdennomu rehioni Ukrainy [The concept of restoration and develjpment of irrigation in the southern region of Ukraine]. (2014). Kyiv: TsP Komprint. [in Ukrainian].
14. Romashchenko, M.I., Yatsiuk, M.V., Zhovtonoh, O.I. & Dekhtiar, O.O. (2017). Naukovi zasady vidnovlennia ta rozvytku zroshennia zemel v Ukraini v suchasnykh umovakh [Scientific principles of restoration and development of land irrigation in Ukraine in modern conditions]. Melioratsiia i vodne hospodarstvo, V. 106 (2), 3-14. [in Ukrainian].
15. Romashchenko, M.I. (Ed), Vozhehova, R.A. (Ed), Shatkovskyi, A.P. (Ed). (2017). Naukovi zasady rozvytku ahrarnoho sektora ekonomiky pivdennoho rehionu Ukrainy [Scientific principles of development of the agricultural sector of the economy of the southern region of Ukraine]. (2017) Kherson: OLDI-PLUS. [in Ukrainian].
16. Fylyppova, A.V. (2017). Effektyvnoe rehulyrovanye bazovykh komponentov ahroekosystem sukhostepnoi zony [Effective regulation of basic components of agro-ekosystems of the dry steppe zone]. Okhrana pryrody i rehyonalnoe razvytye: harmonyia y konflykty (k Hodu ekolohyy v Rossyi): Materyaly mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-praktycheskoi konferentsyy y shkoly-semynara molodykh uchenykh-stepevedov "Heoekolohycheskye problemy stepnykh rehyonov", provedennykh v ramkakh XXI sessyy Ob’edynennoho nauchnoho soveta po fundamentalnym heohrafycheskym problemam pry Mezhdunarodnoi assotsyatsyy akademyi nauk (MAAN) y Nauchnoho soveta RAN po fundamentalnym heohrafycheskym problemam. Moskva, 217-219. [in Russian].
17. Kanakova, A.A., Fylyppova, A.V., & Mykhyna, O.N. (2018). Modely rehulyrovanyia ustoichyvoho razvytyia ahroekosystem v uslovyiakh sukhostepnoi zony [Models of regulation of sustainable development of agroecosystems in the conditions of the dry steppe zone]. Ynnovatsyonnye podkhody k obespechenyiu ustoichyvoho razvytyia sotsyo-ekoloho-ekonomycheskykh system: Materyaly piatoi Mezhdunarodnoi konferentsyy. Ynstytut ekolohyy Volzhskoho basseina RAN. Samarskyi hosudarstvennyi ekonomycheskyi unyversytet., 113-117. [in Russian].
18. Realyzatsyia potentsyala selskokhoziaistvennoho rehyona [Realization of the potential of the agricultural region]. (2016). FHBOU VO Volhohradskyi HAU. Volhohrad: Scientific magazine "Kontsep". [in Russian].
19. Statystychnyi zbirnyk «Silske hospodarstvo Ukrainy» za 2016 rik [Statistical collection “Agriculture of Ukraine” for 2016]. (2016). Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, Kyiv. [in Ukrainian].
20. Statystychnyi zbirnyk «Roslynnytstvo Odeskoi oblasti» za 2016 rik [Statistical collection “Crop production of Odessa region” for 2016]. (2016). Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky v Odeskii oblasti, Odesa. [in Ukrainian].